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Michael S. Teitelbaum: The Fear of Population Decline


The Fear of Population Decline (1985)
(zusammen mit Jay M. Winter)
Academic Press (vergriffen)



Wiederkehrende Ängste vor Unterbevölkerung

"In the West the fear of population decline last flourished during the Great Depression of the interwar years. It went into remission during the two postwar decades from 1945 to the mid-1960s. Since that time, anxious voices have been raised again, first in the socialist states of Eastern Europe, then in Western Europe, and most recently in North America.
These cries of alarm are less shrill than those of the 1930s, but there are unmistakable signs that concern about population decline ist on the rise." (S.1)



1 The Nature of Population Decline

The Recurrent Fear of Population Decline
Images and Terminologies
The Demography of Population Decline

The Basic Population Equation
Measurements of Fertility, Mortality, and Growth
How a Population Ages
The Momentum of Population Growth
Population Projections
Period versus Cohort Rates

2 Demography and International Politics, 1870 - 1945

The European Demographic Transition
Strategic Demography, 1870 - 1914

The French Connection
The Britisch Connection

Strategic Demography, 1914 - 1945

European Security
Imperial Power

3 Demography and Internal Politics, 1870-1945

The Eugenic Approach to Population Decline

Positive Eugenics
Negative Eugenics

Social Democracy and Population Decline

4 Population Dynamics and Policies, 1945 - 1964

Political and Economic Change after the Second World War
The Baby Boom

The Resurgence of Fertility
Interpretations of the Baby Boom
Policy Developments in the Postwar Years

5 Fertility and Poulation Growth, 1965 - 1984

The Decline of Fertility since the Mid-1960s
Contrasting Developments in the Third World: The "Populations Explosion"
Trends in International Migration
Political and Ideological Movements

The Environmental Movement
The Abortion Reform and Feminist Movements
The Pro-Life or Right-to-Life Movements

Trends in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union

The Soviet Union
Other Eastern European Countries

6 Policy Implications and Responses, 1965 - 1984

General Policy Implications

Age Structure and Public Policy
Demographic and Economic Significance of Immigration
Changing Population Composition with Low Fertility and Substantial Immigration

Political Responses to Demographic Changes since 1965

Efforts to Reverse Declining Fertility
Efforts to Adapt to Low Fertility Trends

The Politics of Population in France and West Germany since 1965


7 Conclusions

Alarums and Excursions

Perceptual Distortions Based on Historical Experience
Misinterpretations of Population Projections
Ideological Elements in the Fear of Population Decline
Demographic Differentials, Both International and Internal
Economic and Social Wefare Elements in the Fear of Population Decline
Keynesian Economics and Population Growth
International Politics and Pronatalism

Projections of Plausible Futures
Policy Responses to Fears of Population Decline

Policies Affecting Fertility and Population Growth
Policies Affecting Retirement Benefits


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